Research

  • Research

Research Overview

My current work spans big data econometrics, causal machine learning, quantitative finance, financial networks, quantum machine learning, and market microstructure. In my empirical research, I emphasize careful out-of-sample evaluation, interpretability, and reproducibility.

Big Data Econometrics & Statistical ML High-dimensional nonlinear models, regularization, representation learning, forecasting, and dependence.
Causal ML & Policy Evaluation Panel causal inference, double machine learning, heterogeneous effects, and policy applications.
Forecasting & Quantitative Finance Volatility, portfolio construction, reinforcement learning, asset allocation, and financial prediction.
Financial Networks & Systemic Risk Dynamic dependence, information flow, interconnectedness, systemic risk, and network-based decision tools.
Quantum ML & Market Microstructure Quantum reservoir methods, limit-order-book modeling, market dynamics, and emerging computational methods.

Publications

Journal Articles

Quantum Reservoir Computing for Realized Volatility Forecasting

Li, Q., Mukhopadhyay, C., Bayat, A., & Habibnia, A. Physical Review Research, 8, 023028, 2026.
DOI / article

Trading on Emotion: Behavioral and Predictive Determinants of Algorithmic Trading Adoption

Habibnia, A., & Golshani Nasab, P. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 27(2), 238–251, 2026. Special Issue on Statistical and Machine Learning for Investor Modeling.
DOI / article

Hidden Community Interlayer Spillover Detection in Financial Multilayer Networks: Generalization of Hierarchical Clustering to Multilayer Networks

Ardalankia, J., Habibnia, A., Ausloos, M., & Jafari, G. R. PLOS ONE, 20(9), e0330372, 2025.
DOI / article

A Geometric Approach for Accelerating Neural Networks Designed for Classification Problems

Saffar, M., Kalhor, A., & Habibnia, A. Scientific Reports, 14, 17590, 2024.
DOI / article

Forecasting in Big Data Environments: An Adaptable and Automated Shrinkage Estimation of Neural Networks (AAShNet)

Habibnia, A., & Maasoumi, E. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 19(Suppl 1), 363–381, 2021. Special issue in honor of Anirudh Lal Nagar.
DOI / article

The Proposed Mathematical Models for Decision-Making and Forecasting on Euro-Yen in Foreign Exchange Market

Haeri, A., Rabbani, M., & Habibnia, A. Iranian Economic Review, 16(30), 67–91, 2011.
DOI / article

Other Journal Publication

Deep Learning-Based Modeling for Stock Price Prediction in Iran

Goltabar, S., Abounoori, E., & Habibnia, A. Financial Research Journal, 28(2), 424–463, 2026. In Persian; English abstract available.
DOI / article

Book Chapter

The Rise of AI in Middle Eastern Fintech With the Case Studies From the UAE and Turkey

Razavi, H., & Habibnia, A. In H. Taherdoost, N. Le, M. Madanchian, and Y. Farhaoui (eds.), Exploring Global FinTech Advancement and Applications, 259–297. IGI Global, 2024.
DOI / chapter

Discussion and Refereed Workshop Papers

StochLOB: Heavy-Tailed Score Matching for Robust Limit Order Book Trend Prediction

Abolghasemi, A., Tavakoli, S. R., Naderi, P., Mirzaei, N., Jahani, B., Yousefzade, S., Javaheri, T., Rohban, M. H., Alirezaie, M., Aminian, G., & Habibnia, A. Accepted for oral presentation, NeurIPS 2026 Workshop on AI for Stochastic Dynamics (STODY).
OpenReviewSTODY workshop

Econometric Modeling of Systemic Risk: Going Beyond Pairwise Comparison and Allowing for Nonlinearity

Etesami, J., Habibnia, A., & Kiyavash, N. LSE Systemic Risk Centre Discussion Paper No. 66, 2017. Refereed version: “Econometric Modeling of Systemic Risk: A Time Series Approach,” MiLeTS at KDD, London, 2018.
LSE discussion paperMiLeTS paper

Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management

Habibnia, A. 5th Conference on Development of Financing System, Tehran, Iran, 2013.
DOI / public record
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Working Papers and Manuscripts Under Review

Bullish and Bearish Regimes in Cryptocurrencies: Information Flow Networks and Balance Model Features

Zahedian, M., Ardalankia, J., Hosseiny, A., Habibnia, A., & Jafari, G. R. Revise and resubmit, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

Panel Double Machine Learning with Common Treatment Timing: Identification, Nuisance Restrictions and a Banking Application

Habibnia, A., Maasoumi, E., & Shah, G. Working paper.

Learning Nonlinear Factor Models with Unknown Monotone Links from Incomplete and Noisy Data

Chao, Y., Gökhan, R., Etesami, J., & Habibnia, A. Working paper.
arXiv

Modeling Systemic Risk: A Time-Varying Nonparametric Causal Inference Framework

Etesami, J., Habibnia, A., & Kiyavash, N.
arXiv

Mixture-of-Experts for Cryptocurrency Order Execution: Training Stability, Tail Risk, and Failure Modes

Ardaiz, A., Budati, V., & Habibnia, A. (2026). Working paper; arXiv preprint arXiv:2610.03369 [q-fin.TR; cs.LG].

Evaluating Meta-Regression Techniques: A Simulation Study on Heterogeneity in Location and Time

Gendron, J., & Habibnia, A. Working paper. Earlier version available on arXiv.
Earlier arXiv version

Dynamic Analysis of Systemic Risk in the Banking Sector Through Transfer Entropy and Temporal Measures

Koushki, A., Habibnia, A., Sioofy Khoojine, A., & Farkhondeh Rouz, O.

Optimizing Portfolio with Two-Sided Transactions and Lending: A Reinforcement Learning Framework

Habibnia, A., & Soltanzadeh, M.
arXiv

Testing Dependence: Why Permutation Tests Deserve More Attention

Habibnia, A., Gendron, J., & Jaimes Sandoval, A.

Filling the Gaps in Meta-Regressions: Machine Learning in Realistic Heterogeneity Structures

Gendron, J., & Habibnia, A.
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Research Projects

Research in Progress

Artificial Intelligence Adoption by Financial Decision-Makers: A Review and Meta-Analysis

Habibnia, A., & Golshani Nasab, P.

Online Detection of Change in Correlation for Dynamic Asset Allocation

Amini, A. A., Habibnia, A., & Sadeghi, H.

Beyond Separability: A Study of Higher-Order Metrics on Latent Space

Habibnia, A., & Lunkad, R.

A Multiplex Network Approach to Portfolio Selection

Ardalankia, J., & Habibnia, A.

A Review of the Past, Present, and Future of Testing for Nonlinearity in Time Series

Habibnia, A.
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Software & Data

Open-source code, research software, and replication materials associated with my research are collected here and in my public GitHub repositories.

GitHub

My public repositories include research code, quantitative-finance tools, teaching materials, and reproducible computational examples.

GitHubGoogle ScholarORCID

Selected Research Software

Algorithmic Trading with Python (2023). Habibnia, A. Open-source curriculum covering market microstructure, strategy backtesting, broker and exchange APIs, and live execution; 500+ GitHub stars.

GitHub repositoryDOI / Zenodo

Nonlinearity Test for Principal Component Analysis (2018). Habibnia, A., & Rahimikia, E. MathWorks.

DOI / public record

MATLAB Tutorial for Data Science (2017). Habibnia, A., & Rahimikia, E. MathWorks.

Public record

Replication packages and public datasets will be linked directly from individual research projects when available.

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